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Indian Pediatr 2018;55:326-334 |
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Zika Virus Infection
and Microcephaly in Infants: Is the Association Casual or
Causal?
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Source Citation:
Krow-Lucal ER, de Andrade MR, Cananéa JNA, Moore CA, Leite PL,
Biggerstaff BJ, et al. Association and birth prevalence of
microcephaly attributable to Zika virus infection among infants in
Paraíba, Brazil, in 2015–16: a case-control study. Lancet Child Adolesc
Health. 2018;doi:10.1016/ S2352-4642(18)30020-8.
Section Editor: Abhijeet Saha
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Summary
In this case-control investigation to assess the
association of microcephaly and Zika virus, cases reported to the
national database for microcephaly (on the basis of their birth head
circumference and total body length), born between Aug 1, 2015, and Feb
1, 2016, were enrolled. Controls were identified from the national birth
registry and matched them to cases by location, aiming to enrol a
minimum of two controls per case. Blood samples from mothers and infants
were tested for Zika virus IgM and neutralizing antibodies as evidence
of recent infection. Prevalence of microcephaly and its association with
Zika virus infection was determined using a conditional logistic
regression model.
Of the total 164 infants enrolled at birth, 91 (55%)
had microcephaly on the basis of their birth measurements, 36 (22%) were
classified as small head, 21 (13%) as disproportionate head, and 16
(10%) were classified as not having microcephaly. Forty-three (26%) of
the 164 infants had microcephaly at follow-up for an estimated
prevalence of 5·9 per 1000 live births. Investigators enrolled 114
control infants matched to the 43 infants classified as having
microcephaly at follow-up. Infants with microcephaly at follow-up were
more likely than control infants to be younger (OR 0·5, 95% CI 0·4,
0·7), have recent Zika virus infection (OR 21·9, 95% CI 7·0, 109·3), or
a mother with Zika-like symptoms in the first trimester (OR 6·2, 95% CI
2·8, 15·4). Based on the presence of Zika virus antibodies in infants,
authors concluded that 35-87% of microcephaly occurring during the time
of the investigation in Northeast Brazil, was attributable to Zika
virus, and an estimated 2-5 infants per 1000 live births had
microcephaly attributable to Zika virus.
Commentaries
Evidence-based Medicine Viewpoint
Relevance: Zika virus (ZV) is a flavivirus that
recently created a public health crisis in South America (and globally)
[1]. Its transmission was detected during mid-2015 with a spurt in birth
of infants with microcephaly in the North-East region of Brazil. The
hallmark finding of microcephaly occurs in an estimated 2.3% (95% CI
1.0, 5.3%) infants of ZV-infected mothers [2]; although, this varies by
timing (i.e., trimester) of infection. Affected infants have
severe development disabilities and serious consequences, including
seizures, motor disability, vision deficits and hearing defects [3,4].
There is a high mortality rate ranging from 7% to 10% [5]. Adult
infections were associated with significantly increased risk of
Guillain-Barré syndrome [6]. The recent Brazilian epidemic is the third
such outbreak following those reported from Micronesia in 2007 and
French Polynesia in 2013 [7], suggesting spread of the infection across
the Pacific Ocean into South America.
This case control study in Paraiba (Brazil) reported
that infants with microcephaly at the age of 1-7 months were more likely
to have laboratory-confirmed recent ZV infection (OR 21·9, 95% CI 7·0,
109·3), and maternal history of ZV infection symptoms in the first
trimester (OR 6·2, CI 2·8, 15·4) [8]. Microcephaly was not associated
with the presence of ZV infection symptoms prior to pregnancy or during
the other two trimesters. The overall population prevalence of
microcephaly was calculated as 5.9 per 1000 live births, of which 35% to
87% could be attributed to ZV infection. There was no association
between infant microcephaly and maternal age, education, household
income, and a wide range of environmental factors, including mosquito
exposure prior to pregnancy, type of water supply, consumption of fish,
toxin exposure, and smoking or alcohol consumption during pregnancy
Critical appraisal: The investigators pursued
three separate lines of inquiry in this case-control study [8] viz:
(i) exploration of association between infant microcephaly
and ZV infection, (ii) prevalence of microcephaly following ZV
infection outbreak, and (iii) factors other than ZV infection
that could be responsible for the spurt in microcephaly. It can be
argued that the case-control design is not the best suited design for
these outcomes, especially for calculating prevalence. However, in the
limited time span during (and after) the epidemic, it is perhaps the
most feasible approach. Table I summarizes a critical
appraisal of the study methodology. Several methodological refinements
were applied during the design and conduct of this study. Highly
specific definitions were used for almost all parameters. Although the
focus was on microcephaly, the investigators categorized this further
into true microcephaly, small head and disproportionate head.
Microcephaly identified from the database was re-examined and
re-categorized during a follow-up visit at 1 to 7 months of age.
Extensive efforts were made to match controls to cases by area of
residence. Efforts were made to ensure that the cases and controls had
spent at least 80% of intrauterine life in the area of interest.
TABLE I Critical Appraisal Of The Study Methodology
Criteria |
Appraisal |
Did the study address a clearly focused
issue? |
The investigators focused upon three
issues in Paraiba region of Brazil viz (i) Potential association
between infant microcephaly (at the age of 1-7 months) and
recent ZV infection, (ii) Prevalence of infant microcephaly
attributable to the ZV outbreak, and (iii) Association between
various maternal risk factors and infant microcephaly. |
Did the authors use an appropriate
methodto answer their question? |
The case-control design is acceptable for
identifying associations between exposure (in this case
recent ZV infection as well as environmental factors) and
outcome (occurring of microcephaly in infants). Methodologically
superior prospective observational studies are likely to be time
and resource intensive. |
Were the cases recruited in an acceptable
way? |
Potential cases were initially identified
from the Brazilian national database created to detect
microcephaly, defined by the national criteria (head
circumference <33 cm in term infants until December 2015; <32 cm
thereafter, or less than 3rd centile of mean in pre-term
infants). The investigators then re-classified the potential
cases based on the WHO’s growth curves into (i) microcephaly
(head circumference £3rd centile, and ratio of head
circumference : length £0·65), (ii) small head (head
circumference £3rd centile, and ratio of head circumference :
length >0·65), (iii) disproportionate (head circumference >3rd
centile, and ratio of head circumference : length £0·65), and
(iv) no microcephaly (head circumference >3rd centile, and ratio
of head circumference : length >0·65). All infants underwent a
follow-up assessment at 1-7 months of age for re-measurement and
re-classification of head circumference. Those with microcephaly
at the follow-up visit were counted as cases. A priori sample
size calculation was done and the intended size achieved.
|
Were the controls recruited in an
acceptable way? |
Controls were infants born in the same
region who did not have microcephaly, hence had to be identified
from another database that recorded information on live births
in the country. Two or three controls were planned for each
case. Controls were matched for residence (as close to cases as
possible) but not matched by age, gender etc. However, they were
enrolled only if they were the same age or younger than the
respective cases. |
Was the exposure accurately measured to
minimize bias? |
Ascertainment of recent ZV infection in
infants was done by identifying anti ZV IgM in blood and anti ZV
neutralising antibodies against Zika virus by the plaque
reduction neutralization assay. The effect of passively
transferred maternal antibodies was taken into account by
comparing the ratio of maternal : infant anti ZV antibodies to
the corresponding ratio for dengue virus (since dengue is not
transmitted vertically). Based on this, infants were categorised
as confirmed ZV infection, presumed, possible and uninfected.
All recent ZV infections in infants were assumed to be
vertically transmitted. Ascertainment of exposure to other risk
factors was carried out by asking about maternal demographic
characteristics, illnesses during pregnancy, medications taken,
exposure to toxins/pesticides, type of water supply, fish
consumption, alcohol consumption, smoking, etc. Thus it is
evident that robust ascertainment criteria for ZV infection were
applied, whereas criteria for other exposures were not similarly
stringent, thereby compromising specificity. Further, recall
bias (seeking answers to potential exposures more than 6-12
months previously) compromises sensitivity also. |
What confounding factors have the authors
accounted for? |
The investigators considered several
potentially confounding factors including infant age and gender,
maternal age, ethnicity, & education status, household income,
exposure to mosquito bites (through surrogate questions), water
source during pregnancy, fish consumption, maternal smoking,
alcohol consumption, and toxin exposure (specifically pesticide,
insecticide, rodenticide, fertiliser, and fumigator). However,
there was no effort to confirm or rule out other intrauterine
infections that could be associated with microcephaly.
|
What are the results of this study? How
precise are the results? |
Association with microcephaly (Cases,
n=43 vs Controls, n=114) |
• ZV infection symptoms during the first
trimester: OR 6·2 (95% CI 2·8, 15·4) |
• Confirmed ZV infection: OR 21·9 (95% CI
7·0, 109·3) |
• Confirmed or presumed ZV infection: OR
18·9 (95% CI 7·1, 70·3); |
• Confirmed, presumed, or possible ZV
infection: OR 15·1 (95% CI 4·9, 75·3) |
• Data for only presumed and only
possible infection not shown. |
• None of the other risk factors showed a
statistically significant association. Prevalence of
microcephaly following the ZV outbreak: 5·9 per 1000
livebirths. This was determined as follows: Numerator =
proportion of infants in the microcephaly database who also had
microcephaly at the follow-up visit x total number of infants in
the microcephaly database during the study period. Denominator:
Total number of live births during the same period.The mean
attributable risk of microcephaly with Confirmed ZV infection
was 35% (95% CI 26, 44%); Confirmed or presumed infection 58%
(95% CI 46, 73%); and Confirmed, presumed, or possible infection
87% (95% CI 70, 100%). |
Do you believe the results? |
The results are valid and hence
believable. Some issues compromising validity have been
highlighted in the text. Evaluation of the Bradford Hill
criteria is summarized in Table II. |
Can the results be applied to the
local population? |
No. Please see details. |
Do the results of this study fit with
other available evidence? |
See Table II for detailed analysis.
|
The national microcephaly database identified 836
microcephalic infants, whereas only 352 (42%) had microcephaly by
definition. This discrepancy has two implications. First, the reporting
system was probably highly sensitive (but poorly specific) as may be
expected in an outbreak situation. Second, it confirms that the database
could not be blindly believed. Further, even among 127 infants confirmed
to be microcephalic at birth, only 50 (39%) were microcephalic at the
follow-up visit, and a substantial 44% of the infants did not have
microcephaly. This suggests that birth head circumference may have poor
correlation with subsequent classifications of microcephaly.
This study [8] is not the only, nor even the first
report of an association between Zika virus infection and microcephaly
in infants. During 2015-16, 15 Brazilian states having confirmed ZV
transmission documented the birth prevalence of microcephaly as 0.28 per
1000 live birth, which was over 4 times higher than the corresponding
prevalence in 4 states without confirmed viral transmission [4]. Another
case-control study conducted in several hospitals in Recife (within the
epidemic region in Brazil) compared neonates having microcephaly with
those born without microcephaly [9]. Serum polymerase chain reaction
(PCR) testing for ZV in both groups and additional CSF testing of cases,
was used to define infections. ZV infection was confirmed in about
one-third of cases but none of the controls. A preliminary analysis,
soon after the epidemic peaked, reported significant association of
microcephaly with ZV infection (OR 55·5, 95% CI 8·6,
¥) [9]. A subsequent analysis by the same
investigators again confirmed the same [10]. Population-based
surveillance for detection of birth defects in the USA also identified
an increase in birth defects reported to be associated with congenital
Zika virus infection, during the temporal period of the epidemic in
Brazil [11].
Therefore, the present study [8] has to be viewed
against the backdrop in which it was conducted. In early 2016, there was
reasonable uncertainty whether ZV was actually associated with
microcephaly [12], especially as other potentially responsible factors
were also hypothesized, including maternal vaccination, pesticides,
toxins etc. Putting all the available data together, Table
II summarizes the Bradford-Hill criteria [13] for causality
[8-10,14-27]. In order to establish a causal link between ZV infection
and microcephaly, confirmation of baseline prevalence of microcephaly in
the community (just prior to the epidemic) is important. This is
somewhat hampered by multiple factors, including paucity of local data,
variable reliability of data sources, different methods used to define
microcephaly, variations in types of infants studied and inadequate
investigations performed to identify cause.
Table II Bradford Hill Criteria for Assessment of Causal Role of Zikavirus Infection on Microcephaly
Criteria |
Assessment |
Strength of association |
This [8] and
a few other studies [9,10] confirm strong association between
infant ZV infection and microcephaly. |
Temporality |
The first
case of Zika virus infection in Brazil was reported in May 2015,
and the epidemic was well established by August. The Government
declared a national emergency in November 2015. The epidemic was
followed by a dramatic increase in neonatal microcephaly [10].An
analysis of Brazilian data from January 2015 to November 2016
identified >70% of microcephaly cases to be associated with the
ZV epidemic [14]. During the initial months of the epidemic, the
prevalence was as high as 5.0 per 1000 live births. During the
second wave of the epidemic, the monthly peak prevalence ranged
from only 0.32 to 1.50 per 1000 live births. Initial studies
among mothers of infants with confirmed congenital Zika
syndrome, reported that over three quarters of affected mothers
recalled ZV infection symptoms during pregnancy [15].This case
control study [8] was able to demonstrate that maternal ZV
infection symptoms occurring only during the first trimester of
pregnancy was associated with microcephaly; whereas symptom
occurrence during 30 days prior to pregnancy, as well as during
the second or third trimesters, were not. |
Consistency |
There is
data from other settings within Brazil [9,10,16,17] as well as
other countries such as USA [11] that report similar
observations. During the period 2015-16, fifteen Brazilian
states having confirmed ZV transmission documented the birth
prevalence of microcephaly to be >four-fold higher than the
corresponding prevalence in 4 states without confirmed viral
transmission [18]. Although most investigators confidently
assert a causal association between ZV infection and
microcephaly [19], occasional reports suggested that the
prevalence of microcephaly in Brazil during 2015-16 was similar
or even lower than the baseline prevalence rate [20].
Apparently, increases in the number of Zika virus infection
corresponding to 11-18 weeks of gestation were not followed by
statistically significant increases in the prevalence of
neonatal microcephaly. Another group of authors reported that
the affected (north-east) part of Brazil was recording
microcephaly cases well before the ZV epidemic [21]. They also
argued that active ZV infection and transmission occurred on
more than 60 countries, but none showed spurt in microcephaly
cases. |
Theoretical plausibility |
Vertical
transmission is well documented for several viral infections
(Hepatitis B, HIV, CMV etc) hence it is not surprising that ZV
can also be transmitted in this way. Previous studies have
demonstrated ZV footprints in the amniotic fluid of pregnant
women, placenta and even fetal brain tissue. Other flaviviruses
have been associated with neurotropic effects. Therefore, there
is theoretical plausibility that ZV infections can cause
microcephaly. |
Coherence |
A
case-control study comparing neonates with, and without
microcephaly born in Recife confirmed the association with ZV
infection [10]. Additionally, the investigators did not find any
association with suspected risk factors for microcephaly such as
maternal immunization during pregnancy with TdaP, MMR or MR
vaccines. Similarly, addition of the larvicidepyriproxyfen in
drinking water was not associated with microcephaly. Another
careful analysis of the microcephaly prevalence in
municipalities of Recife using pyriproxyfen identified a
comparable prevalence to municipalities using a biologic
larvicide [22]. These data negate the hypothesis of pyriproxyfen
as a cause of spurt in microcephaly. |
Specificity in the causes |
There are no
obvious threats to specificity. However, this study [8] has not
undertaken sufficiently specific methods to rule out the role of
maternal exposures to toxins/teratogens/other infections as a
potential cause of microcephaly. |
Dose response relationship |
It is
difficult to confirm a dose-response relationship for ZV
infection and microcephaly. However, one study showed that
maternal rash during the third trimester (surrogate for ZV
infection) could be associated with Zika virus related brain
abnormalities even though the head circumference was normal
[23]. The study reported that almost 20% infants with ZV
infection had normal head circumference, suggesting an indirect
dose-response relationship. Data from animal experiments have
demonstrated a dose dependent effect of ZV infection in
immune-competent mice [24]. |
Experimental evidence |
Animal
experiments in immune-competent mice have confirmed that ZV can
be transmitted vertically, and infection resulted in brain
development defects, eye abnormalities and spinal paralysis in
affected offspring [24-26]. Experimental models also showed that
ZV has a predilection for neuronal stem cells, dysregulating
gene expression, and cell cycle progression, resulting in
cellular death [27]. |
Analogy |
Some other
viral infections transmitted vertically have been associated
with microcephaly. This most likely occurs by a depletion of the
pool of neuronal progenitor cells in the developing brain,
resulting in impaired development and microcephaly. |
During the period from 2005 to 2014, data from over
100 hospitals located in 10 South American countries reported a
microcephaly prevalence of 0.44 per 1000 live births for hospital
deliveries and 0.30 per 1000 live births in the community. However,
there were significant inter-country, inter-region and even
inter-hospital differences [28]. The traditional intrauterine infections
were together responsible for less than 4% cases. Similarly, over a
five-year timeframe prior to the ZV epidemic, the Texas Birth Defects
Registry recorded the prevalence of microcephaly as 1.47 per 1000 live
births. Severe microcephaly was recorded in 0.48 per 1000 live births.
Another US-based birth defect surveillance system identified an overall
microcephaly prevalence of 0.87 per 1000 live births [29]. The Quebec
province in Canada reported an overall microcephaly prevalence ranging
from 0.30 to 0.53 per 1000 live births during an observation period
comprising nearly 2 million births over 23 years [30].
In Brazil itself, a report of microcephaly prevalence
during 2011-15 among >8200 infants in neonatal intensive care units
located in areas not associated with the ZV epidemic, reported an
overall prevalence of 5.6% (95% CI 5.1%, 6.1%) with severe microcephaly
in 1.5% (95% CI 1.2% to 1.7%) [31]. Data from two urban Brazilian birth
cohorts comprising >7300 and 4200 live births reported a pre-Zika
microcephaly prevalence of 3.5% and 2.5% [32]. The corresponding
prevalence of severe microcephaly were 0.7% and 0.5%. These represent
unusually high prevalence rates. These variations highlight the
importance of recognizing the pre-epidemic microcephaly prevalence in
the area of interest.
Since neonatal microcephaly is associated with
several non-infectious maternal risk factors (age >35-40 y as well as
<20 y, ethnicity, low education levels, smoking, diabetes, exposure to
teratogens, etc) [28-30,33] that vary with country/society, data
from other settings cannot be extrapolated to the local setting.
Therefore, besides the baseline prevalence of microcephaly from birth
records, analysis of the possible causes is also important to determine
the role of infections such as ZV. This is also missing in this study
[8].
In general, ZV infections are associated with severe
microcephaly [15]. A study of 87 infants with confirmed congenital ZV
infection had mean (SD) head circumference of only 28.1 (1.8) cm,
despite mean (SD) birth weight being 2577 (260) g and >80% being term
deliveries [15]. A comparative analysis of infants without ZV infection
versus those with probable or confirmed infection reported a
difference of 1·45-1·72 (mean 1.58) Z-scores in head circumference [23].
Unfortunately, this study [8] did not provide such data.
The global Zika virus crisis also highlights the
variability in microcephaly definitions used around the world. The
commonly used ‘International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium’
definition is head circumference <–2 standard deviations of the mean for
age and gender. This has been used in most studies [10,17,32]. In
contrast, the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT)
program defines microcephaly as head circumference <–3 Z-scores below
the mean for sex, gender, and ethnicity, with reduced brain size [34].
This definition corresponds to ‘severe’ microcephaly in the other
system. However, a study of 16 European registries comprising >5.7 lakh
births across 15 countries, showed that only approximately half these
registries applied the EUROCAT definition of microcephaly, whereas some
used a cut-off of <–2 Z-score, and over a third of the registries
defined microcephaly on the basis of criteria used by individual
clinicians [34]. One registry changed the definition during the review
period. Not surprisingly, there was a ten-fold variability in the
prevalence across the registries. Interestingly, those using the more
stringent EUROCAT definition reported a higher prevalence of 0.17
compared to 0.12 per 1000 live births with the –2 Z-score cut-off.
Even during the recent epidemic in Brazil, the
definitions of microcephaly for active surveillance of ZV infection
underwent modifications. The initial cut-off provided by the Ministry of
Health was head circumference £33
cm in term infants, whereas this was changed to <32 cm after a
few weeks [35]. It appears that this was appropriate since it best
corresponded to the definition of microcephaly using the gold standard
criteria of head circumference below the 3rd percentile. In the present
study [8] also, the authors reported that the Brazilian Ministry
definition switched from <3rd centile to an ‘updated, more specific’
definition of <–2 Z-scores. However, both these are not very different;
hence, it is difficult to accept that the latter can be more specific.
Extendibility: Data from this study [8]
confirming a causal role of recent ZV infection with infant microcephaly,
can be extended (in principle) across the world, as the bulk of evidence
points in this direction. However, a meaningful epidemiological
interpretation necessitates estimates of local baseline microcephaly
prevalence, a robust surveillance system, and an action-oriented public
health response system. These are currently not well developed in our
setting. Further, the other causes of microcephaly and their relative
distribution in various infant cohorts are unknown. For these reasons,
the data from the study [8] cannot be meaningfully extended to our
setting.
Conclusion: This case-control study provided
strong evidence of an association between infant ZV infection and
microcephaly in early life. However, there are limitations in the
validity of the data ruling out other possible causes for the spurt in
microcephaly in the local setting of the study.
Funding: None; Competing interests: None
stated.
Joseph L Mathew
Department of Pediatrics,
PGIMER, Chandigarh, India.
Email:
[email protected]
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23. França GV, Schuler-Faccini L, Oliveira WK,
Henriques CM, Carmo EH, Pedi VD, et al. Congenital Zika virus
syndrome in Brazil: A case series of the first 1501 live births with
complete investigation. Lancet. 2016;388: 891-97.
24. Li S, Armstrong N, Zhao H, Hou W, Liu J, Chen C,
et al. Zika virus fatally infects wild type neonatal mice and
replicates in central nervous system. Viruses. 2018; 10: E49.
25. Shi Y, Li S, Wu Q, Sun L, Zhang J, Pan N, et
al. Vertical transmission of the Zika virus causes neurological
disorders in mouse offspring. Sci Rep. 2018;8:3541.
26. Cui L, Zou P, Chen E, Yao H, Zheng H, Wang Q,
et al. Visual and motor deficits in grown-up mice with congenital
Zika virus infection. EBio Medicine. 2017;20:193-201.
27. Kozak RA, Majer A, Biondi MJ, Medina SJ, Goneau
LW, Sajesh BV, et al. Micro RNA and mRNA dysregulation in
astrocytes infected with Zika virus. Viruses. 2017; 9:E297.
28. Orioli IM, Dolk H, Lopez-Camelo JS, Mattos D,
Poletta FA, Dutra MG, et al. Prevalence and clinical profile of
microcephaly in South America pre-Zika, 2005-14: prevalence and
case-control study. BMJ. 2017;359:j5018.
29. Cragan JD, Isenburg JL, Parker SE, Alverson CJ,
Meyer RE, Stallings EB, et al. Population-based microcephaly
surveillance in the United States, 2009 to 2013: An analysis of
potential sources of variation. Birth Defects Res A Clin Mol Teratol.
2016; 106:972-82.
30. Auger N, Quach C, Healy-Profitós J, Lowe AM,
Arbour L. Congenital microcephaly in Quebec: baseline prevalence, risk
factors and outcomes in a large cohort of neonates. Arch Dis Child Fetal
Neonatal Ed. 2018;103:F167-72.
31. de Magalhães-Barbosa MC, Prata-Barbosa A, Robaina
JR, Raymundo CE, Lima-Setta F, Antonio José LAC. Prevalence of
microcephaly in eight south-eastern and midwestern Brazilian neonatal
intensive care units: 2011-2015. Arch Dis Child. 2017; 102:728-34.
32. Silva AA, Barbieri MA, Alves MT, Carvalho CA,
Batista RF, Ribeiro MR, et al. Prevalence and risk factors for
microcephaly at birth in Brazil in 2010. Pediatrics. 2018;141:e20170589.
33. Hoyt AT, Canfield MA, Langlois PH, Waller DK,
Agopian AJ, Shumate CJ, et al. Pre-Zika descriptive epidemiology
of microcephaly in Texas, 2008-2012. Birth Defects Res.
2017;110:395-405.
34. Morris JK, Rankin J, Garne E, Loane M, Greenlees
R, Addor MC, et al. Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe:
population based study. BMJ. 2016; 354: i4721.
35. Souza WV, Araújo TV, Albuquerque Mde F, Braga MC,
Ximenes RA, Miranda-FilhoDde B, et al. Microcephaly in Pernambuco
State, Brazil: epidemiological characteristics and evaluation of the
diagnostic accuracy of cutoff points for reporting suspected cases. Cad
Saude Publica. 2016;32:e00017216.
Pediatric
Neurologist’s Viewpoint
In this case control study, Krow-Lucal et al.
[1], provide confirmative evidence of association of maternal antenatal
Zika virus infection with microcephaly in infants. Based on the presence
of Zika virus antibodies in infants, the authors concluded that 35–87%
of microcephaly occurring during the time of their investigation in
northeast Brazil was attributable to Zika virus. They estimated that 2–5
infants per 1000 live births in Paraíba, Brazil had microcephaly
attributable to Zika virus.
Even though, so far Zika virus is not an etiological
consideration in the evaluation of microcephaly in infants in India
(unless there is a history of maternal travel to Zika affected regions
during pregnancy), there are a number of interesting learning points
from this study for pediatricians and pediatric neurologists.
Microcephaly has been traditionally defined as
significant reduction in the occipito-frontal head circumference (HC)
compared with age- and gender-matched controls. Controversies persist
whether a cut-off of less than –2SD or less than –3SD should be
considered to define microcephaly. Some authors have advocated for
defining severe microcephaly as an HC more than 3 SDs below the mean
[1]. However, in the current study, and in most other studies,
microcephaly was defined as HC more than 2 SDs (i.e., <3rd
centile) below the mean for age and gender.
The importance of head circumference measurement at
birth and serial follow- up measurements during clinic visits are
essential but often missed. Head circumference is measured in infants
who present with developmental delay or neurological problems but is
frequently missed during well baby visits and visits for other childhood
illnesses. For term babies, a head circumference at birth less than 32
cm was considered as microcephaly in this study. For preterm babies,
pediatricians need to use the INTERGROWTH-21 st
Charts which provide standards for postnatal preterm growth [2].
The other issue in the assessment of microcephaly is
the relationship of head circumference with other growth parameters such
as length and weight. Traditionally, if the length and weight are also
less than –2 SD for age, the infant is said to have proportionate
microcephaly. If the head circumference is <–2 SD for age, and the
weight and length are normal, the infant is said to have
disproportionate microcephaly. In this study, however, the authors
classified infants into 4 groups: microcephaly (head circumference
£3rd
percentile, head circumference: total body length ratio
£0.65), small (head
circumference £3rd
centile) disproportionate (head circumference >3rd percentile, head
circumference: body length £0.65),
and no microcephaly (head circumference >3rd percentile, head
circumference: body length >0.65). The authors selected a head
circumference: body length cutoff of 0.65 on the basis of consultation
with infant dysmorphology experts and data on newborn infants from
British Columbia indicating that fewer than 10% of newborns have a ratio
of 0.65 or lower. This classification is interesting and needs to be
validated in future studies.
The importance of follow-up measurements is
excellently demonstrated in this study. Out of 91 infants detected to
have microcephaly at birth, only 34 (37%) had microcephaly at follow-up.
Interestingly, out of the 21 infants who were classified as
disproportionate at birth (normal head circumference but
disproportionately small head as compared to the length), 3 infants
(14%) were detected to have microcephaly at follow-up. This fact
underscores the importance of interpreting the head circumference in
relation to the length of the infant. Also, as the authors suggest,
birth measurements have insufficient precision and several measurements
might be needed to classify an infant as having microcephaly.
Funding: None; Competing interests: None
stated.
Suvasini Sharma
Department of Pediatrics,
LHMC & KSCH, New Delhi, India.
Email:
[email protected]
References
1. Ashwal S, Michelson D, Plawner L, Dobyns WB.
Practice Parameter: Evaluation of the child with microcephaly (an
evidence-based review): Report of the Quality Standards Subcommittee of
the American Academy of Neurology and the Practice Committee of the
Child Neurology Society. Neurology. 2009;73:887-97.
2. Villar J, Giuliani F, Butta AZ, Ohuma EO, Ismail
LC, Barros FC, et al. Postnatal growth standards for preterm
infants: the Preterm Postnatal Follow-up Study of the INTERGROWTH-21st
Project. Lancet Glob Health. 2015;3:e681-91.
Public Health
Viewpoint
This was a retrospective case control study to assess
the association of microcephaly and Zika Virus (ZV) conducted in
North-East Brazil and included cases – infants reported to national
database for microcephaly – and age-matched controls from the same
geographic area in the same period [1]. The national case definition for
microcephaly was an infant with head circumference (HC) of 33 cm or
less, which was later changed to HC of 32 cm or less for term infants
and HC lower than 3rd centile for gestational age for preterm infants.
To control the effect of sex and intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR),
the researchers classified the children in 4 categories depending upon
HC and ratio of HC to body length – microcephaly, small,
disproportionate and no microcephaly. Mothers and infants were tested
for Zika virus and dengue virus IgM antibodies and neutralizing
antibodies. All infants had repeat measurements of HC and length at
follow-up.
The study strengthens the evidence of causal
association of ZV infection in pregnancy with microcephaly. Since no
other factor was significantly associated with microcephaly, the article
lays to rest the speculation of role of alternative risk factors such as
environmental toxins. The role of effect modifier such as past or
concurrent dengue infection remains uncertain as the study did not have
sufficient power. A case-control study from same region similarly
attributed the microcephaly epidemic in the area to ZV infection in
pregnancy [2]. A recent meta -analysis of sample size of 2941
pregnancies of which 2648 were live births, provided a pooled prevalence
of ZV-associated microcephaly of 2.3% of pregnancies and 2.7% of the
live births, which is rather lower than expected [3]. A more reliable
estimate of risk of Zika-associated birth defects depending upon the
time of infection in pregnancy was provided by a prospective study from
US territories that studied completed pregnancies with confirmed ZV
infection. The percentages of fetuses or infants with possible Zika-associated
birth defects with maternal infection with Zika virus infection in 1st ,
2nd, and 3rd trimester was 8%, 5%, and 4%, respectively [4]. It is
recognized that the risk of sequelae with ZV is not limited to first
trimester alone, and infants born to mothers with ZV infection need
close follow-up and monitoring.
The study documents importance of repeat measurements
after birth as at follow-up only about one-fourth of the reported cases
actually had microcephaly. The use of a single cut-off value of 33 cm at
birth, which was used in the study, lacks specificity. The head
circumference grows at rapid pace in the last trimester; therefore,
using sex- and gestational age- specific head circumference charts such
as Intergrowth-21 is recommended for preterm infants and term infants in
whom exact gestational age is known [5]. In LMIC countries in which Low
birth weight rates are high, use of a single cut-off, as used in Brazil
will overestimate the burden of microcephaly.
A major challenge with ZV is difficulty in diagnosis
since the PCR assay detects viral RNA and is therefore positive only
during the brief period of viremia. The serological tests show
significant cross-reactivity with other flaviviruses such as dengue
which are often circulating in the same areas . The fetal abnormalities
are detected late in pregnancy when it is often too late for termination
of pregnancy. Besides it is not yet known whether asymptomatic infection
poses a risk to the fetus.
Currently in absence of a vaccine against ZV
infection, prevention remains the only method to reduce the burden of
complications of ZV infection. In populations with established ZV
transmission, congenital Zika Virus syndrome can be prevented by good
vector control measures, preventing sexual transmission, and reducing
the number of unplanned pregnancies. In countries with low or no
transmission of ZV, checking importation of ZV and surveillance of
congenital Zika virus syndrome and Guillian-Barre Syndrome should be in
place. Clustering of microcephaly or suspected Congenital Zika virus
syndrome can give a clue to the outbreak.
The public health implications of outbreak of Zika
virus in India can be enormous. The weak surveillance system coupled
with difficulty in clinically differentiating Zika virus infection from
dengue and chikungunya can hamper the control measures. WHO has
classified countries according to Zika virus circulation and
transmission. As per this classification India falls in category 2 since
there is historical evidence of virus circulation before 2015. The
report of two patients with febrile illness testing positive for Zika
Virus at Ahmedabad in 2017 raised alarm bells in our country. Till date
4 cases with acute febrile illness have tested positive for Zika Virus
(3 from Gujarat and one from Tamil Nadu) suggesting foci of local
transmission. However, no virus has been detected from mosquito
population tested [6]. Needless to say that given the conducive
environment in India, over a variable period, the mutations in the virus
might render mosquitoes more susceptible, which in turn may increase
transmission and result in outbreaks [7]. A similar situation has been
seen with Chikungunya virus in recent past.
To estimate the extent of Zika virus infection in
India, a long-term robust surveillance network is needed. Vector
surveillance needs to be scaled up. Existing acute febrile illness and
birth defect surveillance at sentinel sites needs to be strengthened. It
may be added that phenotype of congenital Zika virus infection is
expanding and besides microcephaly other congenital abnormalities such
as club foot, arthrgryoposis and ocular abnormalities should be added
for surveillance. Surveillance for Guillian Barre Syndrome (GBS) is
another strategy that can be used in addition. Cases of Acute Flaccid
Paralysis are reported routinely to the National Polio Surveillance
Program. Detection of an increase in the number of cases of GBS in the
AFP surveillance system may provide early warning of a Zika virus
outbreak.
References
1. Krow-Lucal ER, de Andrade MR , Cananéa JNA, Moore
CA, Leite PL, Biggerstaff BJ, et al. Association and birth prevalence of
microcephaly attributable to Zika virus infection among infants in
Paraíba, Brazil, in 2015–16: a case-control study. Lancet Child Adolesc
Health. 2018;2:205-13.
2. de Araújo TVB, Rodrigues LC, de Alencar Ximenes
RA, de Barros Miranda-Filho D, Montarroyos UR, de Melo APL, et al.
Association between Zika virus infection and microcephaly in Brazil,
January to May, 2016: Preliminary report of a case-control study. Lancet
Infect Dis. 2016;16:1356-63.
3. Coelho AVC, Crovella S. Microcephaly prevalence in
infants born to zika virus-infected women: A systematic review and
meta-analysis. Int J Mol Sci. 2017;18:1714.
4. Shapiro-Mendoza CK, Rice ME, Galang RR, Fulton AC,
VanMaldeghem K, Prado MV, et al. Pregnancy Outcomes After
Maternal Zika Virus Infection During Pregnancy — U.S. Territories,
January 1, 2016–April 25, 2017. MMWR. 2017;66:615-21.
5. World Health Organization . Screening, Assessment
and Management of Neonates and Infants with Complications Associated
with Zika Virus Exposure in utero. Available from:
http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/zika/assessment-infants/en/
Accessed March 19, 2018.
6. Indian Council of Medical Research. Division of
Epidemiology & Communicable Diseases. Zika Virus preparedness and
response. Available from : http://www. icmr.nic.in/zika/Zika%20update%20-%20January%
202018.pdf. Accessed March 19, 2018.
7. Bhardwaj S, Gokhale MD, Mourya DT. Zika virus:
Current concerns in India. Indian J Med Res. 2017;146:572-5.
Satinder Aneja
Department of Pediatrics,
School of Medical Sciences & Research,
Sharda University, India.
Email: [email protected]
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